© 2005 Behavioral Health Research Institute of the Southwest
612 Encino Place NE / Albuquerque, NM 87102 / 505.244.3099 / www.bhrcs.org

Drinking, Driving, and Drugs:
A Comparative Study of Juvenile Substance Abuse Offenders
in Bernalillo County, NM
By Nancy Owen Lewis, Ph.D. and Iyiin Chang, M.S.

7. RECIDIVISM

Rates.

Nearly 57% of the study population had recidivated by 6/30/97. More specifically, 857 of the 1,518 offenders had at least one referral subsequent to the index offense. Over 11% had two referrals, while nearly 25% had three or more subsequent referrals. Subsequent offenses were not restricted to substance abuse. Approximately 37% of offenders had at least one "other" offense, while 28.1% had a subsequent property offense. Nearly 27% had a subsequent substance abuse offense; 21.3% had an offense against persons; while 18.0% had a subsequent conduct offense.

Of the three groups, drug offenders had the highest recidivism rate – 61.9% compared with 50.3% for alcohol and 44.1% for DWI offenders (Table 28). Drug offenders, however, were younger than either the DWI or alcohol offenders and thus had a longer time to reoffend before reaching age 18. DWI offenders, being the oldest group, had a shorter time to be rearrested. Despite these differences, the three offender groups resembled each other in that conduct offenses were the least common subsequent offense, and "other offenses" were the most common (Table 29).

Nevertheless, there were several statistically significant differences among the three offender groups. A higher percentage of drug offenders had subsequent conduct offenses – 20.7% compared with 16.0% for alcohol offenders and 6.8% for DWI offenders (p<.01). A higher percentage of drug offenders also had subsequent offenses against persons – 24.2% compared with 18.8% for alcohol and 11.0% for the DWI offenders (p<.01). A smaller percentage of DWI offenders had subsequent property offenses – 14.4% compared with 24.7% for alcohol offenders and 32.0% for drug offenders. Similarly, a smaller percentage of DWI offenders had subsequent substance abuse offenses – 13.7% compared with 24.7% for alcohol offenders and 29.8% for drug offenders (p<.01). Of the 483 offenders with subsequent substance abuse offenses, 274 (56.7%) had a drug offense, 163 (33.7%) had an alcohol offense, and 46 (9.5%) had a DWI (Table 30). The only statistically significant difference (p<.01) among the three groups was that a higher percentage of drug offenders had subsequent drug offenses.

Referral History.

Recidivism was also analyzed by referral history (Table 31). Offenders with at least one referral prior to the index case had higher recidivism rates than those with no prior referrals. More specifically, 42.6% of offenders with no prior referrals recidivated – compared with 57.8% of offenders with 1 prior referral and 71.5% of those with 2 or more prior referrals. Of the three groups, drug offenders had the highest percentage of repeat offenses and DWI offenders, the lowest. However, as noted previously, differences in recidivism rates are likely a function of differences in age.

Risk Factors.

It was anticipated that offenders who completed requirements such as educational or counseling programs might be less likely to recidivate. Given the lack of information on program compliance, the analysis instead focused on offense and demographic variables. To determine the demographic factors predictive of recidivism, juveniles who were rearrested were compared with those who did not reoffend in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, education, parent’s marital status, and offender group (DWI, alcohol or drugs). An adjustment was made for follow-up time. The results revealed no significant differences in recidivism by age category or offender group. The following five risk factors, however, were identified:

1. Male gender. The recidivism rate was 93% higher for males than for females (p<.001).
2. Non-Anglo ethnicity. When compared with Anglo offenders, the recidivism rate was 200% higher for Blacks, 73% higher for Hispanics, and 49% higher for Native Americans (p<.001). The recidivism rate for offenders of other ethnic groups was 65% higher than for Anglos (p<.01).
3. Dropouts. The recidivism rate for school dropouts was 20% higher than for offenders currently enrolled in school (p<.001).
4. Residence with a divorced, widowed, or separated parent. The recidivism rate was 20% higher for offenders who resided with a divorced, widowed, or separated parent than for those who lived with both parents or in another type of household (p<.05).

Table 28.
Recidivism by Offender Group.

Table 29.
Subsequent Offenses.

Table 30.
Subsequent Substance Abuse Offenses.

Table 31.
Recidivism by Number of Prior Referral.